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Fall severe weather season ramping up
As we move into October, the 'fall storm season' in the USA is beginning to bring a few events to watch. A series of progressive upper troughing scenarios is taking shape, the first of which affected our region in the past couple of days. By the end of the week, we'll have another shot at some decent storms here as the next trough in the train arrives. The NAM model shows the next trough sweeping across the nation's midsection on Thursday, on course to arrive here by the weekend after bringing a severe weather threat to the Plains states:
NAM 500mb pattern for Thursday
Instability is not very impressive, but it usually doesn't need to be this time of year:
NAM CAPE (instability) for Thursday
Not unlike spring, models have trouble with the details during the dynamic (rapidly changing) fall season, so it's not of much use to try to nail down specifics until a day or two before an expected event.