Storm Highway by Dan Robinson
Storm chasing, photography and the open roadClick for an important message
Storm Highway by Dan RobinsonClick for an important message
Home | Blog Index | Blog Archives | Christianity & Faith Essays | Storm Chasing Essays

                   Saturday, May 11, 2013 - 4:36PM CST

Possible Plains opportunities late next week

By DAN ROBINSON
Editor/Photographer
Important Message 30 Years of Storm Chasing & Photography Dan's YouTube Video Channel Dan's Twitter feed Dan's RSS/XML feed

From Dan: How the crime of copyright infringement took $1 million from me and shut down my operation.

In September of 2025, my work is generating the most income it ever has in my career. Yet, I'm being forced to shut down my successul operation, against my will, due to one cause alone: 95% of that revenue is being stolen by piracy and copyright infringement. I've lost more than $1 million to copyright infringement in the last 15 years, and it's finally brought an end to my professional storm chasing operation. Do not be misled by the lies of infringers, anti-copyright activists and organized piracy cartels. This page is a detailed, evidenced account of my battle I had to undertake to just barely stay in business, and eventually could not overcome. It's a problem faced by all of my colleagues and most other creators in the field.

It appears we may have some legit Great Plains trips in the making for late next week, though it is too early to start looking at specific targets. A shortwave (smaller in amplitude) trough is shown by the GFS and Euro models as traversing the USA's midsection from Friday through Sunday. This will overspread southwesterly flow of at least 30 knots overtop of a dryline with good low-level moisture, yielding CAPE values in the 3000 j/kg range. Wind profiles veer with height, starting with southeasterly surface winds near and along the dryline in Kansas and Nebraska (the most likely target areas if current model runs verify). Capping could be a concern with 700mb temps approaching 12°C, though precip has been indicated breaking out in the best areas.

Translating those setups to potential SPC outlook levels, Friday and Saturday appear to be high-end slight risks with 5%-10% tornado probabilities. A moderate risk would not surprise me if moisture and instability values can be realized.

Because this system could bring at minimum two consecutive storm chase days, it's on my radar as far as triggering Plains trip #2 for the year. However, since shortwave troughs are often handled poorly by models, especially more than a few days out, I will hesitate in giving this system more than 50% chase probabilities. That value will increase in the coming days if models hold on to what is currently shown. Since I can make a same-day western Kansas arrival easily with a morning departure from St. Louis, a go/no go decision could come as late as sunrise Friday morning.

The following table charts the probability of a Great Plains storm chase expedition for the indicated date ranges:

2013 Plains Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of May 11
May 12-151%
May 16-2050%

Good grief.. it's mid-May already. Way overdue for a good set-up.
- Posted by JM from Canada

Yep - definitely been a slow start. Hopefully things will really begin taking off later this month into June.
- Posted by Dan R. from New Baden, IL

30 Years of Storm Chasing & Photography
Important Message
Dan's YouTube Video Channel
Dan's Twitter feed
Dan's RSS/XML feed

GO: Home | Storm Chase Logs | Photography | Extreme Weather Library | Stock Footage | Blog

Featured Weather Library Article:

How lightning works
Does it go up or down? A detailed description of lightning from start to finish.
More Library Articles

All content © Dan Robinson. All usage requires a paid license - please contact Dan for inquiries.

Web Site Design and Internet Marketing by CIS Internet