Storm Highway by Dan Robinson
Weather, photography and the open roadClick for an important message
Storm Highway by Dan RobinsonClick for an important message
Home | Blog Index | Blog Archives | Christianity & Faith Essays | Storm Chasing Essays

                   Friday, April 14, 2017

Plains forecast update for April 14

Important Message 30 Years of Storm Chasing & Photography Dan's YouTube Video Channel Dan's Twitter feed Dan's RSS/XML feed

The atmosphere has been playing some tricks on storm chasers this week, most notably the surprise quality tornado event in the Texas panhandle today (Friday) with less than 10 knots of midlevel flow aloft! The medium-range models have been flip-flopping on the system next week, with an "outbreakish" negatively-tilted wave overspreading the Plains in the Friday-Saturday timeframe:

GFS forecast for April 22

This wave is preceded by a multi-day episode of 30-40 knot midlevel southwesterly flow over "doable" moisture starting on Wednesday of next week. It has my attention for sure, but given the models' performace as of late, I am not above 50% on heading out for a Plains trip just yet. If next week plays out as things are shown right now, I'd be out of here Tuesday night for a trip that could last through the weekend. If the models can stay stable on this pattern, my confidence levels for a trip starting on April 18 will go up 10% with each passing day.

Tomorrow in the Texas/Oklahoma planhandles looks like a decent event, but it's too far of a drive to make a last-minute run for a one-day opportunity. That plus the fact that Sunday looks like a Midwest play may happen within a few hours of home.

The following table charts the probabilities for a Plains storm chase expedition taking place for the date ranges shown:

2017 Plains Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of April 14
April 15-172%
April 18-2345%

30 Years of Storm Chasing & Photography
Important Message
Dan's YouTube Video Channel
Dan's Twitter feed
Dan's RSS/XML feed

GO: Home | Storm Expeditions | Photography | Extreme Weather Library | Stock Footage | Blog

Featured Weather Library Article:

Lightning types
Anvil crawlers, bolts from the blue, sheet, ribbon and bead lightning. Learn how to identify each!
More Library Articles

All content © Dan Robinson. All usage requires a paid license - please contact Dan for inquiries.

Web Site Design and Internet Marketing by CIS Internet