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Saturday, June 10, 2017

2017 Plains forecast update #11: for June 10

By DAN ROBINSON

Editor/Photographer

Next Tuesday continues to look impressive enough to tip the scales in favor of Plains trip #2 for the season happening. Models have trended toward the cap breaking down into Kansas, with the environment from northern Kansas into South Dakota very favorable for supercells and tornadoes. It's all thanks to this midlevel closed low ejecting onto the central/northern Plains over strong to extreme instability:

GFS forecast for June 13

Monday also features a tempting setup in the eastern Wyoming/Nebraska panhandle region as the upper support starts edging out over the High Plains. The quandary with this is the distance one will need to travel coming from the east like I do - will it be worth that extra 8-10 hours of driving, only to need to turn back to eastern Nebraska/Kansas on Tuesday? A Tuesday-only chase would allow for a leisurely departure Monday afternoon, while observing Monday would require a marathon haul starting midday Sunday (with an overnight stay needed on the way). That daunting prospect has me less motivated for Monday, but not writing it off completely.

Whatever the scenario, my confidence is high for getting a second Great Plains trip logged this season.

The following table charts the probabilities for a Plains storm chase expedition taking place for the date ranges shown:

2017 Plains Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of June 10

June 11-14

70%