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Saturday, June 10, 2017

2017 Plains forecast update #11: for June 10

By DAN ROBINSON

Editor/Photographer

From Dan: How the crime of copyright infringement took $1 million from me and shut down my operation.

In September of 2025, my work is generating the most income it ever has in my career. Yet, I'm being forced to shut down my successul operation, against my will, due to one cause alone: 95% of that revenue is being stolen by piracy and copyright infringement. I've lost more than $1 million to copyright infringement in the last 15 years, and it's finally brought an end to my professional storm chasing operation. Do not be misled by the lies of infringers, anti-copyright activists and organized piracy cartels. This page is a detailed, evidenced account of my battle I had to undertake to just barely stay in business, and eventually could not overcome. It's a problem faced by all of my colleagues and most other creators in the field.

Next Tuesday continues to look impressive enough to tip the scales in favor of Plains trip #2 for the season happening. Models have trended toward the cap breaking down into Kansas, with the environment from northern Kansas into South Dakota very favorable for supercells and tornadoes. It's all thanks to this midlevel closed low ejecting onto the central/northern Plains over strong to extreme instability:

GFS forecast for June 13

Monday also features a tempting setup in the eastern Wyoming/Nebraska panhandle region as the upper support starts edging out over the High Plains. The quandary with this is the distance one will need to travel coming from the east like I do - will it be worth that extra 8-10 hours of driving, only to need to turn back to eastern Nebraska/Kansas on Tuesday? A Tuesday-only chase would allow for a leisurely departure Monday afternoon, while observing Monday would require a marathon haul starting midday Sunday (with an overnight stay needed on the way). That daunting prospect has me less motivated for Monday, but not writing it off completely.

Whatever the scenario, my confidence is high for getting a second Great Plains trip logged this season.

The following table charts the probabilities for a Plains storm chase expedition taking place for the date ranges shown:

2017 Plains Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of June 10

June 11-14

70%