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Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Storm chasing forecast update 3, for March 19

By DAN ROBINSON

Editor/Photographer

From Dan: How the crime of copyright infringement took $1 million from me and shut down my operation.

In September of 2025, my work is generating the most income it ever has in my career. Yet, I'm being forced to shut down my successul operation, against my will, due to one cause alone: 95% of that revenue is being stolen by piracy and copyright infringement. I've lost more than $1 million to copyright infringement in the last 15 years, and it's finally brought an end to my professional storm chasing operation. Do not be misled by the lies of infringers, anti-copyright activists and organized piracy cartels. This page is a detailed, evidenced account of my battle I had to undertake to just barely stay in business, and eventually could not overcome. It's a problem faced by all of my colleagues and most other creators in the field.

The first system with chase potential in traditional Great Plains trip territory will materialize in the central USA this weekend. The primary event of interest is on Sunday, when moisture returns north to set up a dryline under a modest upper jet.

The typical early-season concerns will be present with this system: extensive cloud cover, moisture return just barely reaching the 60F dewpoint threshold in Oklahoma and the main area of interest along and south of the Red River in less-than-ideal chase terrain. Nonetheless, this system is enough to register the first increase on the chase probability meter, which I'll currently place at 15%.

Medium and long-range models are also hinting at an active period continuing to the end of March, as several systems with at least minor chase potential present themselves. I'm not seeing any blockbuster tornado setups on the horizon yet, but there should, at the very least, be plenty of lightning and hail to herald the first couple weeks of "official" spring in the Plains and Midwest. It's enough, in fact, that I may embark on a lightning-only chase during one of them! Stay tuned.

The following table charts the probabilities for a Plains storm chase expedition taking place for the date ranges shown:

2019 Plains Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of March 20

March 21-25

15%

March 26-31

15%