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Storm chasing season forecast update 8 for April 23
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Confidence has increased significantly in Great Plains expedition #2 beginning tomorrow night and lasting potentially through the weekend. Models have become consistent and in agreement on multiple days of significant supercell and tornado potential on Thursday, Friday and Saturday in particular. In fact, the Storm Predition Center has made a rare mid-day update to their Day 3 convective outlook for Thursday's potential.
SPC's Day 3 outlook update for Thursday
Not much has changed with the upper level trough configuration and wind profiles for this upcoming system, but the moisture situation has. Models have backed off of their depictions of weaker and more diffuse moisture/instability (what we cann the "thermodynamics" of the pattern) to now show abundant instability off of the dryline. That was the missing piece that preculded any greater enthusiasm about a chase trip.
On top of Thursday's look, the prospect of multiple tornado days in a row makes it much more likely that a Plains trip departure will happen tomorrow night. Stay tuned!
The following table charts the probabilities for a Plains storm chase expedition taking place for the date ranges shown:
| 2024 Plains Chase Expeditions - Probabilities as of April 23 |
| April 24-28 | 85% | |
| April 29-30 | 10% | |
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