Storm Highway by Dan Robinson
Weather, photography and the open roadClick for an important message
Storm Highway by Dan RobinsonClick for an important message
Home | Blog Index | Blog Archives | Christianity & Faith Essays | Storm Chasing Essays

                   Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Storm chasing season forecast update 8 for April 23

Important Message 30 Years of Storm Chasing & Photography Dan's YouTube Video Channel Dan's Twitter feed Dan's RSS/XML feed

Confidence has increased significantly in Great Plains expedition #2 beginning tomorrow night and lasting potentially through the weekend. Models have become consistent and in agreement on multiple days of significant supercell and tornado potential on Thursday, Friday and Saturday in particular. In fact, the Storm Predition Center has made a rare mid-day update to their Day 3 convective outlook for Thursday's potential.

SPC's Day 3 outlook update for Thursday

Not much has changed with the upper level trough configuration and wind profiles for this upcoming system, but the moisture situation has. Models have backed off of their depictions of weaker and more diffuse moisture/instability (what we cann the "thermodynamics" of the pattern) to now show abundant instability off of the dryline. That was the missing piece that preculded any greater enthusiasm about a chase trip.

On top of Thursday's look, the prospect of multiple tornado days in a row makes it much more likely that a Plains trip departure will happen tomorrow night. Stay tuned!

The following table charts the probabilities for a Plains storm chase expedition taking place for the date ranges shown:

2024 Plains Chase Expeditions - Probabilities as of April 23
April 24-2885%
April 29-3010%

30 Years of Storm Chasing & Photography
Important Message
Dan's YouTube Video Channel
Dan's Twitter feed
Dan's RSS/XML feed

GO: Home | Storm Expeditions | Photography | Extreme Weather Library | Stock Footage | Blog

Featured Weather Library Article:

Lightning myths
Take a look at these common lightning myths. You might be surprised!
More Library Articles

All content © Dan Robinson. All usage requires a paid license - please contact Dan for inquiries.

Web Site Design and Internet Marketing by CIS Internet