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Storm chasing season forecast update 3 for March 27
As covered in my last post, the system that just made its way through the central US had great wind profiles for tornadoes, but was very lacking in enough moisture for the main Great Plains component of the event on Sunday. Another trough is shown following by this weekend by most all medium-range models and model ensemble members. This next system, while not a blockbuster, looks more favorable for severe weather, with good wind profiles for supercells/tornadoes in the Plains and/or Midwest starting on Saturday and lasting for several days thereafter.
GFS 500mb forecast for Sunday evening, March 27
Unlike the last system, this one is shown to have sufficient moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico occurring in advance of it, with dewpoints well into the 60s F in the southern Plains and Midwest by Saturday. This moisture on Saturday and Sunday will already have a good westerly upper-level winds overhead with 30 to 40 knots of flow at 500mb, but a strong cap is currently shown limiting storms from forming those days. Severe storms from the Plains/Midwest through the South look most likely on Monday and Tuesday, when moisture and instability is shown increasing enough to allow the cap to be reliably breached.
Since we're still several days out, there isn't much else we can say about this system other than the models are consistent and in agreement in the large-scale ingredients for severe weather being present somewhere in the central US starting this weekend. As we get closer, there will be more to talk about as the picture becomes clearer.
What I can say at this point is that the first Great Plains trip of the year could be on the table for Sunday and Monday. The main caveat is that a supercell/tornado environment may also exist simultaneously in the Midwest, which for me would mean staying local for at least one of those days. It's definitely something to watch as we move toward this weekend.
For now, I'm increasing the chances for a Plains trip during the Saturday-Monday timeframe to reflect what models currently show. Beyond April 1, models show several days of downtime followed by potentially another Plains trough, but that's much too far away to even speculate on (not to mention the eclipse happening during that period). Stay tuned for updates!
The following table charts the probabilities for a Plains storm chase expedition taking place for the date ranges shown:
| 2024 Plains Chase Expeditions - Probabilities as of March 27 |
| March 27-29 | 0% | |
| March 30-April 1 | 30% | |
| April 2-10 | 5% | |
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