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Friday chase - West Virginia / North Carolina
3:35PM Friday: Charleston looks to be in the bullseye with the convection to the southwest. I don't see a weakening trend on radar, so we might get a good show here soon. A small, isolated cell crossing the border now is also of interest. Heading out in a few minutes.
3:08PM Friday: Not much to talk about today, other than the fact that storms have fired and a nice cluster of convection in Kentucky is conveniently heading straight for the Charleston-Teays Valley corridor. Wind profiles today are more unidirectional, but still strong aloft (see map below). This keeps the chances for severe weather around, while limiting the tornado potential. The 4km WRF has the Kentucky storms weakening some before they arrive in Charleston. The model shows a much stronger pulse of convection tonight on the immediate east side of the Appalachians, along a line from Wytheville, VA down through Mount Airy and Winston-Salem, NC. SPC mesoanalysis supports this also with a max in CAPE in that area.
The plan now is to see what the Charleston area can get here in the next couple of hours, then head down toward Raleigh in the hopes that I can make it ahead of the stronger storms expected around Mount Airy.
|Looks like all the good stuff is down in SC as of 9:45pm MDT.|
- Posted by Jim C from Denver
|The WRF was right about the strong storms at dusk, but was about 200 miles too far south with them. Central WV and the Shenandoah Valley in Va turned out to get what the WRF said Peidmont NC would get. SPC mesoanalysis says that CAPE is mostly gone, so things should quiet down everywhere until tomorrow afternoon.|
- Posted by Dan R. from Charleston, WV