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                   Tuesday, April 27, 2010 - 3:58AM CDT

4/23 log; forecast update

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I went ahead and posted up a few images from Friday the 23rd, simply for posterity:

LOG w/ PHOTOS: Storms in central Missouri on 4/23

Looking ahead to later this week: the latest GFS model has really thrown this upcoming pattern up into the air. The upper half of the atmosphere looks great for severe weather, but the low levels are a mess. It appears from the GFS, if it is right, that a stationary frontal boundary will set up on the south end of the upper flow, possibly even farther south than that. Low-level flow just stops right at this boundary, which acts as a barrier - north of it the winds and moisture are completely hosed. South of the boundary, conditions look good for tornadic storms - but it would again be in the deep south. It's not a pattern I'm used to seeing this time of year if it actually happens.

The NAM model is still looking decent for an event on Thursday in central Kansas, which could be enough to get out to the Plains for a single-day chase. After that, it appears that things could shift back into the Midwest for Friday. As for chase probabilities, I don't yet feel confident raising or lowering the chances for this week either way - but if the GFS is correct, Thursday might be the only good Plains day for a while.

2010 Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of April 27
April 28-May 470%
May 5-1045%
May 11-1555%

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