Storm Highway by Dan Robinson
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Monday, June 1, 2009 - 2:12PM

Plains season restart?

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I've been waiting a few days to make this post, wanting to first see a good series of model runs before saying anything. If the 2009 season is in a nose-dive, it looks like the engines are trying to turn over. Long-range models suggest a healthy western troughing trend will being to erode the ridge in the next few days, and take hold as the dominant pattern by the weekend. This should re-start the engines on the plunging 2009 storm season and allow it to at least attempt to pull out of the dive. I will be watching this closely in the coming days and make a final determination on whether trip #2 will be a go.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of the second Plains weather expedition starting on a particular date:

2009 Weather Expedition #2 - Departure Date Probability as of June 1
June 1-745%
June 8-1545%
No trip #210%

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