A light at the end of the eastern trough?

By DAN ROBINSON Editor/Photographer

GFS 500mb forecast for May 24

To the joy of storm observers across the Plains, the GFS model is finally starting to show signs of losing its argument with the ECMWF model. The European model continues to be steadfast about the return of a western trough and a good observing pattern starting next week. It's still too early to get too overly excited, but the signs so far have been encouraging.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2008 Storm Observing Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 16 May 9-25 20% May 26-June 15 20% No trip 60%