The best times and places to see tornadoes, using storm chasing stats

By DAN ROBINSON

Editor/Photographer

I'm often asked the questions of how many tornadoes I've seen, and how difficult they are to see. Another common question involves the best times and places to see a tornado. I'm a stats/numbers type person, so I have always kept data on the tornadoes I've witnessed over the years. I thought it might be a fun exercise to break that data down into tables by state, region, year and month to show what dates and locations have been the most productive in terms of easily-observable tornadoes. (This article's stats are updated at regular intervals - last update was June 2, 2022.)

The short answer: The best time of year to attempt to see a tornado is during the month of May. The state of Kansas produces both the highest number total tornadoes and the most visually-spectacular tornadoes for the storm chaser actively going out to attempt to see one.

As for personal stats, as of today I've seen 156 tornadoes. I've averaged seeing a tornado on one out of a little more than every four tornado attempt days. On average, one out of every 5 tornadoes I see is "photogenic" (well-developed with good lighting and contrast). Some years have been better than that, others were worse (some I saw zero tornadoes!). On average, I put in around 12 tornado "attempt" days per year (not including travel days). From the time I decided to start pursuing tornadoes in 2001, it took me three years of active storm chasing before I gained enough knowledge and skill to start seeing tornadoes.

The long answer: Below are tables breaking down tornado days by region, month, state and year. For the purpose of this data set, I'm not counting my numerous other outings for lightning, flooding, winter storms or general storm structure (those total in the dozens per year). This data also shows the average number of days one must go out to see a tornado in different regions of the USA and at different times of year.

Before I get into the tables, here is how I define the metrics and data categories:

USA Tornado Chasing Regions: For the purposes of this post, I'm only highlighting regions where you have multiple realistic chances to see a tornado each year, if you are able to chase when the conditions come together. This map plots what I consider to be the USA's four viable tornado-observing regions:

Tornado Attempt Days: For the purposes of this data set, I consider a Tornado Attempt Day to be one where there was tornado potential, and therefore my storm chasing objective/strategy was tornado-driven. I strategize and execute a storm chase day differently depending on what I expect storms to do, that is, I don't count my numerous lightning photography/shelf cloud/flooding outings to be 'tornado attempt days' unless tornado potential materializes at some point during the outing. As such, this data more accurately reflects my attempt-to-bust ratio when it comes to tornadoes only.
Tornado Days: These are defined as storm chase days where a tornado is seen, regardless of the number of tornadoes captured on that day.
Success rate: This is the percentage of tornado attempt days that result in a tornado day. Again, for this calculation, each tornado day is counted only once, regardless of the number of tornadoes seen on that day.
Photogenic Tornadoes: This is a highly subjective metric, but one that I thought would be useful to include. That is, how much do you have to go out to see a "quality" event? For the purposes here, I define "photogenic" as a tornado that:
1. has very little rain wrapping (or at least not enough to significantly impact visibility and contrast)
2. is well-developed, that is, has a more or less "complete" structure with a continuous funnel and/or debris cloud from ground to cloud base
3. lasts reasonably long enough to capture well-composed images and video, and
4. occurs during bright daylight hours, resulting in pleasing lighting and contrast.
The header image at the top of this article is a sampling of what I consider to be photogenic tornadoes.

Annual Averages

Great Plains averages are calculated beginning in 2001. Midwest averages are calculated beginning in 2010, the year I moved to and began regularly storm chasing in that region.

Metric	Overall Average	Great Plains Average	Midwest Average
Tornadoes	7.2/year	5.4/year	3.2/year
Photogenic Tornadoes	1.7/year	1.9/year	Every 2.4 years
Tornado Attempt Days	12.4/year	6.1/year	10.6/year
Tornado Days	3/year	1.9/year	1.9/year
Tornadoes Per Tornado Day	2.4	2.9	1.2
Tornado Attempt Mileage	7,580.9/year

Tornadoes by Region - Leader: Great Plains

The Great Plains in the spring is by far the most 'bang for your buck' in terms of the probability that you'll see a tornado on any given storm chase day. Overall, it takes twice as many storm chase days to see a tornado in the Midwest than the Great Plains, but each Midwest attempt tends to involve half of the mileage of a typical Great Plains trip. All but 3 of the Midwestern tornadoes I've seen occured less than 2 hours from home!

*37 of the 38 Midwest tornadoes were captured since 2010 (after I moved to the St. Louis metro area), and 31 of those 38 were captured in the state of Illinois.

Region	Tornado Attempt Days	Tornado Days	Tornadoes	Photogenic Tornadoes	Success Rate	% Photogenic
Great Plains	133	40	114	30	30.1%	26.3%
Midwest	135	23	38*	5	17.0%	16.1%
South	2	0	0	0	0%	0%
East	4	0	0	0	0%	0%
Total	273	63	152	35	23.1%	23%

Tornadoes by Month - Leader: May

Of course, spring is the dominant season for severe storms, with May predictably on top for total tornadoes and the most photogenic tornadoes. Of note is the fact that I have had at least one tornado storm chase day in every month of the year, a consequence of living in the Midwest where many events are scattered throughout the entire year. All of my top 5 tornado intercepts have occurred in May.

Month	Tornado Attempt Days	Tornado Days	Tornadoes	Photogenic Tornadoes	Success Rate	% Photogenic
January	2	0	0	0	0%	0%
February	4	2	3	1	50%	33.3%
March	12	1	1	0	8.3%	0%
April	40	7	19	4	17.5%	21.1%
May	86	35	81	20	40.1%	25%
June	28	13	33	7	46.4%	21.2%
July	7	3	5	0	42.9%	0%
August	1	0	0	0	0%	0%
September	3	2	2	1	66.7%	50%
October	3	1	1	0	33.3%	0%
November	5	1	1	0	20.0%	0%
December	3	2	5	2	66.7%	40%
All	273	63	152	35	23.1%	23%

Tornadoes by State - Leader: Kansas

The leader in this category is no surprise: Kansas is the best state to spend time and money trying to see tornadoes in, with the greatest number of tornadoes, most photogenic tornadoes and best overall success rate. But on this list, Illinois is catching up - in 2021, IL passed Oklahoma to gain second place for total tornado sightings. Also of note here is the surprising difficulty I've had seeing tornadoes in Missouri, despite a high number of tornado attempt days there (ranked number 3 in that category!). Part of this is due to the road network and terrain, but it's mostly because storms over there have simply not been very productive like they have in the states on either side.

I didn't include mileage in this category, as chase days frequently involve multiple states. Trying to go back through each individual storm chase day to break all of those numbers down by state would be too time-consuming a task for this purpose.

State	Tornado Attempt Days	Tornado Days	Tornadoes	Photogenic Tornadoes	Success Rate	% Photogenic
Kansas	35	14	46	14	40%	30.4%
Illinois	75	19	31	4	25.3%	12.9%
Oklahoma	43	8	25	5	18.6%	20.0%
Texas	21	8	18	4	38.1%	22.2%
Nebraska	12	6	10	4	50%	40%
Colorado	7	4	8	3	57.1%	37.5%
Missouri	42	5	7	0	11.9%	0%
Wyoming	1	1	2	1	100%	50%
Iowa	3	1	1	0	33.3%	0%
South Dakota	2	1	1	0	50.0%	0%
Kentucky	7	0	0	0	0%	0%
Indiana	5	0	0	0	0%	0%
Ohio	2	0	0	0	0%	0%
Tennessee	2	0	0	0	0%	0%
Arkansas	2	0	0	0	0%	0%
North Carolina	2	0	0	0	0%	0%
West Virginia	2	0	0	0	0%	0%
Alabama	1	0	0	0	0%	0%
Louisiana	1	0	0	0	0%	0%
North Dakota	1	0	0	0	0%	0%
All	273	63	152	35	23.1%	23%

Tornadoes by Year - Leader: 2016

This table only goes back to 2001, since that was the first year I expanded from just covering lightning to pursuing tornadoes and supercells. Prior to that, I was going out strictly for lightning photography.

*My 2020 spring tornado season was mostly shut down due to the pandemic. COVID travel restrictions in Illinois from March 23 to May 29 prevented me from leaving the St. Louis metro area during the peak of severe weather season.

**Mileage shown is for tornado attempts only (this figure does not include mileage traveled for other weather phenomena such as winter storms, hurricanes, lightning and floods).

Year	Tornado Attempt Days	Tornado Days	Tornadoes	Photogenic Tornadoes	Success Rate	% Photogenic	Mileage**	Avg. Miles per Tornado
2001	4	0	0	0	0%	0%	4,178	-
2002	5	0	0	0	0%	0%	3,983	-
2003	10	0	0	0	0%	0%	11,136	-
2004	13	6	12	4	46.2%	33.3%
2005	8	3	14	2	37.5%	14.3%	11,893	849.5
2006	6	1	1	0	16.7%	0%	8,065	8,065
2007	6	3	15	0	50%	0%	10,243	682.9
2008	6	2	4	0	33.3%	0%	4,962	1,240.5
2009	7	0	0	0	0%	0%	5,249	-
2010	15	3	6	0	20%	0%	7,837	1,306.2
2011	10	2	2	1	20%	50%	4,247	2,123.5
2012	12	3	11	5	25%	45.5%	7,244	658.5
2013	22	6	12	4	27.3%	33.3%	9,189	765.8
2014	10	6	10	1	60.0%	10%	9,709	970.9
2015	14	4	6	0	28.6%	0%	9,725	1,620.8
2016	11	4	17	5	36.4%	29.4%	6,741	396.5
2017	11	5	9	4	45.5%	44.4%	6,439	715.4
2018	15	4	11	3	26.7%	27.2%	10,654	968.5
2019	24	5	8	3	20.8%	37.5%	13,674	1,709.3
2020*	8	0	0	0	0%	0%	1,945	-
2021	17	6	12	2	35.3%	16.7%	10,305	858.8
2022	10	1	1	0	10%	0%	6,083	6,083
All	273	63	152	35	23.1%	23%	163,501	1,075.7

I'd be interested to hear if your tornado day to tornado storm chase day rates are similar to mine.

Storm chaser and photographer Dan Robinson

About the Author: Dan Robinson has been a storm chaser, photographer and cameraman for 30 years. His career has involved traveling around the country covering the most extreme weather on the planet including tornadoes, hurricanes, lightning, floods and winter storms. Dan has been extensively published in newspapers, magazines, web articles and more, and has both supplied footage for and appeared in numerous television productions and newscasts. He has also been involved in the research community, providing material for published scientific journal papers on tornadoes and lightning. Dan also holds an active Remote Pilot Certificate from the FAA (Part 107) for commercial drone operation.

Wow! Great stats. My last 3 years as follows: Event Days. Tornado Days. Tornadoes. Success 2011. 5. 1. 3. 20% 2012. 1. 0. 0. 0% 2013. 7. 5. 8. 62.5%
- Posted by Clarence from Nashville, Tn