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Monday, October 15, 2007 - 2:58PM

Possible severe weather Thursday-Friday

By DAN ROBINSON

Editor/Photographer

From Dan: How the crime of copyright infringement took $1 million from me and shut down my operation.

In September of 2025, my work is generating the most income it ever has in my career. Yet, I'm being forced to shut down my successul operation, against my will, due to one cause alone: 95% of that revenue is being stolen by piracy and copyright infringement. I've lost more than $1 million to copyright infringement in the last 15 years, and it's finally brought an end to my professional storm chasing operation. Do not be misled by the lies of infringers, anti-copyright activists and organized piracy cartels. This page is a detailed, evidenced account of my battle I had to undertake to just barely stay in business, and eventually could not overcome. It's a problem faced by all of my colleagues and most other creators in the field.

The models are showing a good-sized mid and upper level trough moving through the midwest and Appalachians in a few days. If you remember from our forecasting excercises in the spring, these troughs can help to produce severe weather on their front quadrants due to the large-scale wind shear and lift (upward vertical motion) that usually accompany them. This trough should coincide with plenty of warm, moist air at the surface to create a ripe environment for severe storms from the Plains and Mississippi Valley through the Appalachians, Great Lakes and possibly the Northeast. Below are two graphics from the GFS model output for Thursday evening (00:00 UTC Friday).

The size and depth of the trough shown seems like a good bet due to model consistency, but the critical factor will be the timing of its passage. Severe weather prospects will be maximized if the trough's shear and lift can arrive during the afternoon, when daytime heating and the resulting instability is at or near its peak. If the trough arrives overnight during the time of minimum temperatures and instability, we may not see storms at all.

Contrary to common belief, the fall season can bring with it its fair share of storms and severe weather outbreaks. October 24, 2001, November 11, 2002, November 12, 2003, November 8, 2005, November 9, 2005, November 15, 2005 and September 22, 2006 are just a few examples from recent years where not only was I out photographing storms, but seeing significant tornado outbreaks, intense lightning and flash flooding. So even though summer is over, it's never time to put away the chase gear!

Judging from the current model output, Thursday's severe weather potential seems to be centered around the Evansville-Louisville area into southwest Ohio, then moving into West Virginia and Pennsylvania (albiet while weakening) on Friday. A chase westward into Kentucky or Ohio may be in order on Thursday if conditions warrant.